UK Manufacturing PMI Explained: A Guide for Buyers
Quick answer
The UK manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey score that shows whether UK factories are doing more business or less than the month before. A score above 50 means more, and below 50 means less.
For buyers, the main score is only the start. The detail underneath shows whether parts are taking longer to arrive, whether costs are rising and whether other manufacturers are holding more or less stock.
Used together, those figures give you an early warning to check your lead times and safety stock before a shortage reaches your production line.
Looking for the latest figures? Read what September's UK manufacturing PMI means for your stock levels.
What is the UK manufacturing PMI?
The PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a monthly survey of around 650 UK manufacturers, run by S&P Global. Each month it gives a single score showing whether manufacturing is doing more business or less than the month before, and it's one of the earliest signs of how the sector is doing.
The survey goes to purchasing managers, the people who buy parts and materials for their business, because they tend to notice changes in orders, prices and deliveries early.
Each month, they answer simple questions such as "are your orders higher, the same or lower than last month?" The survey has run since January 1992, according to S&P Global, so there's a long record to compare against.
How is the PMI score worked out?
The main PMI score combines five parts of the survey, each given a different weight. New orders count for the most, at 30%, followed by output, employment, supplier delivery times and stock levels.
Here's how the S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI, September 2026 breaks it down:
What does a score of 50 mean?
50 is the dividing line. A score above 50 means more firms reported an increase than a decrease, and below 50 means the opposite. The further the score is from 50, the bigger the change.
Why do slower deliveries push the PMI up?
In the PMI, slower deliveries from suppliers raise the score. That's because suppliers are usually slow when they're busy, and busy suppliers normally point to a strong economy.
The catch is that slow deliveries can also be a sign of supply problems, such as busy ports, shipping delays or shortages of raw materials. When that happens, the main score can rise even though buyers are finding it harder to get parts.
So if the PMI goes up, it's worth checking whether the rise is down to stronger orders or longer delays.
Which PMI figures should buyers watch?
For anyone buying components, three figures matter most: supplier delivery times, input costs and stocks of purchases. Together they show how long parts are taking, what they cost and how much cover other manufacturers have.
Supplier delivery times
This shows whether parts are arriving faster or slower than the month before. If delivery times are getting longer, your own lead times are likely to follow.
Key term: lead time The time from placing an order to receiving the parts.
What this means for you: the longer and less predictable your lead times, the more stock you need to avoid running out.
Input costs
This shows whether manufacturers are paying more or less for what they buy. The PMI release usually names the items behind the change, such as electronics, energy or chemicals.
Key term: input costs What a manufacturer pays to make its products, including parts, raw materials, energy and transport.
What this means for you: if your input costs rise faster than your selling prices, your margins narrow.
Stocks of purchases
This shows whether manufacturers are holding more or fewer parts and materials. When it falls for several months, many firms have less spare stock to fall back on if supply gets harder.
Key term: precautionary stock Extra parts bought as a safety net in case supply is disrupted. This is the "just in case" approach, as opposed to "just in time", where parts arrive only when they're needed.
What this means for you: when lots of firms build up or use up this stock at the same time, suppliers get busier or quieter, which changes how quickly your parts arrive.
When is the UK manufacturing PMI published?
The PMI comes out twice for each month. An early estimate, called the "flash" PMI, is published in the second half of the month, followed by the final figures early the next month, usually on the 1st or 2nd.
You can find upcoming dates in the S&P Global PMI release calendar, and the latest releases on the S&P Global PMI website. The flash figure can change slightly in the final release, so it's best to plan around the final number.
What is safety stock?
Safety stock is the extra stock you keep on top of what you expect to use. It covers you if a delivery is late or you suddenly need more, so you don't run out and have to pause production.
You may also hear it called buffer stock. The Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, the professional body for buyers, defines buffer stock in the CIPS glossary of procurement terms as stock held on top of what you need right away.
If you run out of a part you need, that's called a stock-out, and for a manufacturer it can mean a stopped line.
How do you work out safety stock?
There are detailed formulas for safety stock, but here's a simple starting point:
Safety stock = number of extra days you want to cover x number of parts you use each day
Here's an example with made-up numbers:
- You use 200 connectors a day.
- Your supplier usually takes 8 weeks to deliver, but it has taken up to 10 weeks before.
- To cover those 2 extra weeks (10 working days), you'd keep 200 x 10 = 2,000 connectors as safety stock.
The longer and less predictable your lead times, the more safety stock you need.
What's the trade-off?
More safety stock means less risk of stopping your line, but it also ties up cash and storage space. The aim is to hold the right amount of each part, not as much as possible.
How can you use the PMI to check your stock levels?
Use the PMI as an early warning: when it shows longer delays and rising costs, check the parts that would stop production if they ran out. Then make sure your safety stock is based on today's lead times, not last year's.
Here are five practical steps:
- Look past the main score. Check what's happening to delivery times, input costs and stock levels too.
- List your critical parts. Start with the parts that would stop your line if they arrived late.
- Check today's lead times. Ask your suppliers how long orders are taking now, and update your plans if anything has changed.
- Review your safety stock. Use the simple sum above to check it still covers those lead times.
- Check the PMI each month. A quick look at the final figures early each month is enough to spot a change in direction.
For parts with long or unpredictable lead times, you could also ask your supplier to hold stock for you. Our earlier article explains how managed buffer stock works.
Want a second view on your stock?
If you'd like help with parts that have long or uncertain lead times, or with hard-to-find components, get in touch. You can also see the component categories MGS sources and the sectors MGS supports.
FAQs
What does a PMI score above 50 mean?
A score above 50 means UK factories are doing more business than the month before, and a score below 50 means they're doing less. The further the score is from 50, the bigger the change.
Who publishes the UK manufacturing PMI?
S&P Global publishes it, based on a monthly survey of around 650 UK manufacturers. The survey has run since January 1992.
How often is the UK manufacturing PMI published?
It's published every month. S&P Global releases an early "flash" estimate in the second half of the month, then the final figures early the next month, usually on the 1st or 2nd.
Why do longer delivery times push the PMI up?
The PMI treats slower deliveries as a sign that suppliers are busy, which usually means a strong economy. But slow deliveries can also mean supply problems, so it's worth checking the details behind the score.
How much safety stock should a manufacturer hold?
It depends on how many parts you use, how long your lead times are and how much they vary. A simple starting point is to multiply the extra days you want to cover by the number of parts you use each day. Review it whenever lead times change.
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